Karl Toomet

Title: Military Innovation and the Coming of AI-RMA - Analysis of Ukrainian and Estonian Case Studies

Supervisor: Dr. Egert Juuse, Dr. Illimar Ploom

Opponent: Tomas Jermalavicius

Defense: 6 June 2023


Abstract:Various different models are provided by academics researching military affairs on how to analyse military innovations. The author of this thesis has combined various models into what he calls 4IR/5TR/2MA - MR - AI-RMA - MIT model which gives a holistic framework through which to analyse military innovation. This model is used by the author to look at two case studies - Russo-Ukrainian war and the Estonian military sector. The first case study is used to demonstrate that the world is on the verge of a new age in warfare - how war is conducted and possibly even what the future nature of warfare will look like. New technologies in the Russo-Ukrainian war have changed the constitution of entities that fight wars as well as the ways combat is conducted. The second case study demonstrates using data collected from expert interviews that the Estonian military sector has experienced a dichotomy when it comes to military innovation. All in all the author demonstrates with this thesis, that warfare as many other integral elements of human society, is experiencing profound change due to the rapid technological advancement the world is experiencing today. Estonia as a small but innovative country has to take advantage of that, both to stay secure in our geopolitical environment as well as to ensure future economic competitiveness.


Keywords: Military innovation, Estonian defence sector, Russo-Ukrainian war, AI-RMA, unmanned vehicles